Executive Summary
15931 Victory Boulevard is a 17,713 SF cleared lot in Lake Balboa, across Victory Boulevard from the Sepulveda Basin. Casa Victory, LLC took the site through Executive Directive 1 review for a 100% affordable apartment building (case ADM-2023-7897-DB-VHCA-ED1, review completed 06/12/2024). The current building permit set, approved in plan check on 05/20/2026, shows 99 units: 3 very low income, 80 low income and 15 moderate income units plus a manager's unit, in five stories of Type IIIA construction over a one-story garage, 59,376 SF in all.
We valued the land the way a developer will: by what the finished building is worth, less what it costs to build and a developer's profit. We ran three rent cases: the 2026 LAHD covenant maximums, the 2026 HACLA Section 8 payment standards and true market rents of $1,850 for a studio and $2,100 for a one-bedroom. The Section 8 case, the one an affordable housing buyer will underwrite, supports a land value of $4,320,000, or $43,636 per unit. Five Valley ED 1 land sales averaged $37,117 per unit. We recommend listing at $3,000,000, $30,303 per unit, below both, to bring every affordable housing developer active in the Valley to the table.
Subject Property
Entitlement and Permit Status
| Item | Number | Status |
|---|---|---|
| ED 1 / Density Bonus review, 100 units, 100% affordable | ADM-2023-7897-DB-VHCA-ED1 | Review completed 06/12/2024 |
| New building, 99 units (3 VLI, 80 LI, 15 MI, 1 manager), 59,376 SF | 23010-10000-04084 / supplemental 23010-10001-04084 | Supplemental plan check approved 05/20/2026; main permit not yet issued |
| Grading | 25030-20000-01669 | Ready to issue (05/26/2026) |
| Site retaining wall | 25020-20000-00814 | Plan check information complete |
| Electrical, plumbing and HVAC | 25041-10000-60382, 24042-10000-16201, 24044-10000-14356 | In plan check |
| Demolition of the existing duplexes and house | 24019-10000-04406 and others | Finaled 12/19/2025 |
Source: LADBS permit records and City Planning case file, read 11/09/2026. The Planning approval describes 100 units; the current permit set shows 99, and this analysis uses 99. The studio and one-bedroom split (19 studios, 80 one-bedrooms) is carried from the project's rent schedule. A buyer confirms the remaining clearances and fees before issuance with LADBS and the project architect.
Rents: Three Cases
Every unit is income restricted, so the rent a buyer can collect depends on the covenant schedule, on whether tenants hold Section 8 vouchers, and on what the market will actually pay for a new studio or one-bedroom in Lake Balboa.
| Unit Type | Units | Covenant 2026 | Section 8 2026 | True Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Studio, Very Low Income (50% AMI) | 3 | $1,457 | $2,110 | $1,850 |
| Studio, Low Income (80% AMI) | 16 | $2,332 | $2,110 | $1,850 |
| 1BR, Low Income (80% AMI) | 64 | $2,499 | $2,370 | $2,100 |
| 1BR, Moderate Income (110% AMI) | 15 | $2,247 | $2,370 | $2,100 |
| 1BR, Manager | 1 | $1,500 | $1,500 | $1,500 |
| Monthly rent, all 99 units | 99 | $236,824 | $228,820 | $202,550 |
Covenant 2026. LAHD's maximum rents effective 07/01/2026: Schedule IX at 50% of area median income for the very low income units and 80% for the low income units, and Schedule VI at 110% for the moderate income units. LAHD schedules
Section 8 2026. HACLA's payment standards effective 09/01/2026. ZIP 91406 is in Tier 7: $2,110 for a studio and $2,370 for a one-bedroom. HACLA payment standards
True Market. $1,850 for a studio and $2,100 for a one-bedroom, supported by new buildings nearby (Rent Comps below). This is the rent a tenant without a voucher will pay, whatever the covenant allows.
Land Residual: What a Developer Can Pay
| Stabilized Operations | Covenant 2026 | Section 8 2026 | True Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross scheduled income | $2,841,888 | $2,745,840 | $2,430,600 |
| Vacancy (5%) | ($142,094) | ($137,292) | ($121,530) |
| Effective gross income | $2,699,794 | $2,608,548 | $2,309,070 |
| Management (5% of gross) | ($142,094) | ($137,292) | ($121,530) |
| Insurance, utilities, repairs, trash, elevator, reserves, landscaping, on-site manager, admin | ($316,506) | ($316,506) | ($316,506) |
| Property taxes (1.2% of finished value) | ($360,960) | ($347,040) | ($301,320) |
| Net operating income | $1,880,233 | $1,807,710 | $1,569,714 |
| Finished value at a 6.25% cap rate | $30,080,000 | $28,920,000 | $25,110,000 |
| Per unit | $303,838 | $292,121 | $253,636 |
| Developer's View | Covenant 2026 | Section 8 2026 | True Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sale proceeds (after 8.5% cost of sale) | $27,523,200 | $26,461,800 | $22,975,650 |
| Hard and soft construction cost | ($16,110,990) | ($16,110,990) | ($16,110,990) |
| Construction interest and holding costs | ($1,618,723) | ($1,534,963) | ($1,260,649) |
| Developer profit (17% of net proceeds) | ($4,673,487) | ($4,495,847) | ($3,904,011) |
| Residual land value | $5,120,000 | $4,320,000 | $1,700,000 |
| Per unit · per land SF | $51,717 · $289 | $43,636 · $244 | $17,172 · $96 |
Sensitivity: Land Value at Other Cap Rates
| Exit Cap Rate | Covenant 2026 | Section 8 2026 | True Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.75% | $6,610,000 | $5,750,000 | $2,940,000 |
| 6.00% | $5,840,000 | $5,010,000 | $2,300,000 |
| 6.25% | $5,120,000 | $4,320,000 | $1,700,000 |
| 6.50% | $4,450,000 | $3,670,000 | $1,140,000 |
| 6.75% | $3,820,000 | $3,070,000 | $620,000 |
Finished ED 1 Buildings
Four completed ED 1 buildings in the City of Los Angeles have sold with a recorded price since their certificates of occupancy. They are the check on the finished values above.
| # | Address | Area | Units | Completed | Sale Price | $/Unit | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7524 S Hoover St | South LA 90044 | 79 | 09/24/2025 | $26,500,000 | $335,443 | 01/26/2026 |
| 2 | 11418 W Missouri Ave | West LA 90025 | 44 | 09/11/2025 | $16,650,000 | $378,409 | 05/26/2026 |
| 3 | 10705 S Avalon Blvd | Southeast LA 90003 | 69 | 09/24/2025 | $15,190,000 | $220,145 | 12/04/2025 |
| 4 | 5220 S Vermont Ave | South LA 90037 | 23 | 08/01/2025 | $4,000,000 | $173,913 | 09/30/2025 |
| 5 | 6057 S Vermont Ave | South LA 90044 | 19 | 06/24/2026 | Not disclosed | n/a | 09/14/2026 |
| Total, 1 to 4 | 215 | $62,340,000 | $289,953 |
Our Section 8 case values the finished building at $292,121 per unit, in line with the $289,953 per unit these four buildings averaged. The covenant case sits a little above that and the market case below it.
Completed Valley ED 1 Buildings, Not Yet Sold
| # | Address | Area | Units | Completed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 14535 W Weddington St | Van Nuys 91411 | 23 | 02/24/2026 |
| 7 | 11606 and 11608 W Archwood St | North Hollywood 91606 | 37 | 09/12/2025 |
| 8 | 16136 W Devonshire St | Granada Hills 91344 | 15 | 11/04/2025 |
| 9 | 8163 N Sepulveda Blvd (supportive housing) | North Hills 91402 | 50 | 10/01/2026 |
Sale prices and dates from LA County Assessor transfer records (full transfer tax), except 11418 Missouri, which recorded with no transfer tax value; its price is from the LAAA Team (buyer Los Angeles LoMod South Inc, deed 26-0380634). 6057 S Vermont recorded as exempt, so its price is not public. 7524 S Hoover went through a trustee sale in 2024 before completion. Completion dates are LADBS certificates of occupancy. Data compiled at land.laaa.com.
Valley ED 1 Land Sales
Five approved ED 1 sites in the San Fernando Valley sold after approval. The closest, 6545 Woodley, is about a quarter mile away in the same ZIP.
| # | Address | Area | Units | Lot SF | Sale Price | $/Unit | $/Land SF | Closed | Dist. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | 15931 Victory Blvd (subject) | Lake Balboa 91406 | 99 | 17,713 | $3,000,000 | $30,303 | $169 | Proposed | |
| A | 6545 N Woodley Ave | Van Nuys 91406 | 36 | 7,041 | $1,415,000 | $39,306 | $201 | 07/31/2024 | 0.3 mi |
| B | 14658 W Gilmore St | Van Nuys 91411 | 46 | 9,225 | $1,690,000 | $36,739 | $183 | 04/22/2025 | 1.6 mi |
| C | 17100 Victory Blvd | Lake Balboa 91406 | 194 | 79,046 | $8,000,000 | $41,237 | $101 | 12/12/2025 | 1.4 mi |
| D | 21155 Califa St | Woodland Hills 91367 | 316 | 114,099 | $14,000,000 | $44,304 | $123 | 06/26/2026 | 6.4 mi |
| E | 12342 Osborne Pl | Pacoima 91331 | 100 | 43,145 | $2,400,000 | $24,000 | $56 | 08/06/2024 | 6.7 mi |
| Average (A to E) | $37,117 | $133 |
Recorded prices and dates from LA County Assessor transfer records (full transfer tax paid); lot sizes per the Assessor; units per each site's ED 1 case. Each sold after its ED 1 approval and before construction. 21155 Califa sold with an existing office building on the site.
At $30,303 per unit the subject is priced below the $37,117 average, even though it is further along than any of these sites were when they sold: plan check approved, grading ready to issue and demolition done. At $169 per land SF it is also below the two small sites nearby, A and B, which sold at $183 to $201.
New Construction Rent Comps
New studios and one-bedrooms built since 2022 within about two and a half miles. They support the true market rents of $1,850 for a studio and $2,100 for a one-bedroom used above. The subject's units are smaller (about 350 SF studios and 440 SF one-bedrooms), so they rent below the larger floor plans here.
| Building | Area | Built | Type | SF | Rent | Status | Dist. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14535 Weddington St | Sherman Oaks 91411 | 2026 (ED 1) | 1BR | 600 | $2,300 | Asking, 5 units (Oct 2026) | 2.2 mi |
| 14535 Weddington St | Sherman Oaks 91411 | 2026 (ED 1) | 1BR | 500 | $1,800 | Removed after 285 days (Aug 2026) | 2.2 mi |
| 14833 Erwin St | Van Nuys 91411 | 2022 | 1BR | 450 | $1,690 to $1,995 | Removed, likely leased (Oct 2025) | 1.4 mi |
| 6755 Sylmar Ave #508 | Van Nuys 91405 | 2024 | 1BR | 600 | $2,295 | Asking (Oct 2026) | 2.0 mi |
| 7650 Van Nuys Blvd | Van Nuys 91405 | 2024 | 1BR | 634 | $2,250 | Asking, 207 days (Apr 2026) | 2.4 mi |
| 6600 Van Nuys Blvd | Van Nuys 91405 | 2022 | Studio | 533 | $1,995 | Asking, 3 units (May 2026) | 1.9 mi |
RentCast rental listings pulled 11/09/2026, with year built from LightBox; "removed, likely leased" means the listing came off the market within 60 days, which suggests but does not prove a lease. 14535 Weddington is itself a completed ED 1 building leasing up now. Across all vintages, RentCast's ZIP 91406 medians are $1,495 for a studio and $1,795 for a one-bedroom.
Opinion of Value
The Section 8 case is the one the buyers for this site, affordable housing developers and the funds behind them, will underwrite, and it supports $4,320,000. The land sales agree: approved Valley ED 1 sites have traded at $24,000 to $44,000 per unit, with the most recent at the top of that range, and this site is further along than any of them were.
We recommend listing at $3,000,000, below both. At that price a developer underwriting Section 8 rents projects a profit of about $5.95M, 22.5% of net sale proceeds, and one underwriting true market rents still projects about $2.47M, or 10.7%. That margin absorbs a buyer's own construction budget and financing, and it is what brings several affordable housing developers to the table at once. The pitch is time: a cleared lot, approved building plans and a grading permit ready to issue, so construction can start soon after closing. Competition among those buyers is the best way to push the final price above the ask.
Also Marketed by the LAAA Team
The LAAA Team is currently marketing 7 land and development-site listings across Southern California. Each card links to the full offering at www.laaa.com.
Active laaa.com land listings as of November 9, 2026, excluding properties in escrow.
The LAAA Team
